Atif Anwer Dar
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Cost Asymmetry And Escalation Dynamics: Extending Deterrence Theory For The Drone Age
Abstract: Growing economic asymmetry between inexpensive offensive systems and costly defensive architectures is reshaping escalation dynamics in contemporary warfare. Focusing on the period from 2022 to the present, the analysis examines case studies from the Russia-Ukraine war, Iran’s regional strategy in the Middle East, and recent India-Pakistan crises in South Asia. Drawing on insights from… Read More
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Missile-Induced Systemic Compression And Crisis Stability In South Asia
Abstract: Technological acceleration is compressing decision-making timelines between nuclear-armed adversaries in ways classical deterrence theory did not anticipate. This essay introduces the concept of “missile-induced systemic compression” to explain how supersonic velocity and dual-capable ambiguity—the inability to distinguish conventional from nuclear warheads—systematically reduce crisis decision windows below the threshold required for deliberative management. Examining the… Read More
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How Technology Is Breaking Crisis Management In Nuclear South Asia
Abstract: Technological acceleration is changing how crises unfold between nuclear-armed adversaries. In South Asia, India and Pakistan have fought an escalating series of confrontations—2016, 2019, and 2025—that move faster, involve more domains, and leave less room for diplomacy than classical deterrence theory predicts. This essay introduces the concept of systemic compression: a structural condition in… Read More
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