Abstract: After the 2024 election year, right-wing political parties dominate in both the US and the European Parliament. Meanwhile, the effectiveness of governments in Germany and France has slowed down due to disagreements among coalition parties. In Belgium, the Cordon Sanitaire has been compromised. This article is the first part of a three-part series, providing an overview of the election results in the USA, the EU, and specifically at the national level in Germany, France, and the UK, with a focus on key political figures and government shifts. It highlights similarities, such as the spontaneous dissolution of parliaments in the leading EU countries, as well as differences in how governments approach challenges like rising living costs, the determination of annual budgets, and increasing immigration amid ongoing crises and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. The second part of the series will illustrate the approaches of these countries, as well as other global players such as the BRICS nations, towards peace negotiations in these two conflicts.

Problem statement: Democratic governments face both external and internal challenges, such as how to deal with right-wing political groups holding about 30% of the vote. How are right-wing demands from the population being addressed in Western democracies?

So what?: Constructive cooperation between governments is required, with all possible approaches. The actions of these governments will be observed, compared, and judged by the international community.

This year, for the first time, 4.2 billion people—more than half of the world’s population—were eligible to participate in elections held in 76 countries worldwide.[1] In the USA, France, and the United Kingdom, voter turnout ranged between 59.7%[2] and 66.7%.[3] In these and other EU countries, governments face challenges such as rising living costs, the deteriorating state of public services, and increasing immigration due to crises and wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.[4]

Right-Wing Political Parties as a Government Option in the EU Parliament

The coalition formed in 2019 between the Christian Democratic European People’s Party (EPP), the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D), and the liberal Renew Europe group will continue following the European elections held from June 6 to June 9, 2024. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (EPP) was also re-elected.[5] However, the liberals lost around 4% in votes compared to 2019, primarily in France, while the Social Democrats and the Greens lost 1.9% and 3%, respectively, particularly in Germany. [6] This reduced the coalition’s majority from 60% in 2019 to 55.7% this year.[7]

In the EU Parliament, the largest share of the 720 seats is held by the most populous EU countries. Since Brexit was finalised in 2020, Germany has 96 seats, France has 81, and Italy has 76.[8] The 76 seats previously held by the UK were redistributed among 14 underrepresented and new member states.[9]

Noteworthy is the increase in votes for right-wing political parties in the EU Parliament, which holds nearly one-third (26%) of the seats and has reorganised into three factions.[10]

The conservative-right political party European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) secured 78 seats (10.8%).[11] The faction primarily consists of the Italian Brothers of Italy party, which implemented strict measures against illegal immigration[12] under the leadership of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, holding 24 seats, and the Polish Law and Justice party, with 20 seats.[13] In order to secure majorities in parliament given the reduced strength of the left-wing political parties, von der Leyen opened up the option of cooperation with the ECR.[14]

Hungarian President Viktor Orbán and France’s three-time presidential candidate Marine Le Pen established a new right-wing faction, Patriots for Europe (PfE), which became the third-largest faction in the European Parliament with 84 seats (11.7%). Of these, 30 are held by members of the French right-wing party Rassemblement National (RN).[15], [16]

Hungarian President Viktor Orbán and France’s three-time presidential candidate Marine Le Pen established a new right-wing faction, Patriots for Europe.

In May 2024, the RN ended its cooperation with the German Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the Identity and Democracy (ID) faction due to fundamental disagreements.[17], [18] The RN distanced itself from proposals such as “remigration”, controversies surrounding AfD’s EU lead candidate Maximilian Krah—e.g., remarks concerning the Waffen-SS[19], [20], [21]—and the AfD’s goal of withdrawing Germany from the EU.[22] In contrast, Le Pen sought collaboration with Meloni and the ECR, aiming to potentially form the second-largest faction in the European Parliament and to oust von der Leyen.[23], [24] In response, the AfD formed a third right-wing faction in the EU Parliament, Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN), which holds 25 seats (3.5%).[25]

Compared to 2019, the EU Commission is now predominantly centre-right instead of centre-left. The number of Liberal and S&D members has been reduced by three each, the number of EPP members has been increased by two, while the Greens are no longer represented.[26], [27] Additionally, one member was added from the ECR, and 13 more are occupying positions in the 20 committees and four subcommittees of the EU Parliament, [28] which means that the cordon sanitaire – the agreement between the centre and left-wing political parties not to elevate right-wing MEPs to leading positions within the Parliament – was not upheld. As the members of Patriots for Europe were not given a position in the EU’s governing bodies despite their strong presence, they filed a complaint with the European Court of Justice.[29], [30] However, a ruling is not expected for several years due to bureaucratic procedures.[31] Since then, a coalition government with the Belgian far-right party Vlaams Belang was formed in Belgium on October 13 following the local elections in the province of Antwerp.[32], [33]

Government Crises in the United Kingdom, France, and Germany

In the UK, Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak advanced the parliamentary elections by six months to July 4, 2024, following pressure from the opposition.[34], [35] Voter turnout was only 59.6%, marking one of the lowest levels in 100 years.[36] In this multi-party system with a dominance of Conservatives and Labour, government fatigue after 10 to 14 years and thus, a change of government between these two parties is considered to be common.

The Labour Party secured 34% of the votes, translating into 412 out of 650 seats (63.4%) in Parliament. The Conservative Party experienced its worst performance since 1832, garnering 24% of the vote and 121 seats (18.6%). The Liberal Democrats became the third-largest party with 72 seats (12.2%), while the right-wing Reform UK secured five seats despite winning 14.3% of the vote due to the UK’s first-past-the-post system.[37], [38], [39]

Additionally, 132 MPs, including 77 Conservatives, 34 Labour members, and 9 independents, declined to seek re-election, marking a significant turnover.[40], [41] With 335 first-time MPs, this is the highest number since 1918.[42]

Keir Starmer, the new Labour Prime Minister, promised economic growth without raising taxes and improving post-Brexit relations with the EU, particularly with Germany and France.[43] However, Starmer faces internal party conflicts in particular over the extent of social welfare programs, tax hikes and the party’s stance on Israel’s actions in Gaza.[44], [45]

Keir Starmer, the new Labour Prime Minister, promised economic growth without raising taxes and improving post-Brexit relations with the EU, particularly with Germany and France.

In France, President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the Parliament elected in 2022, three years early, due to the results of the European elections.[46] The far-right Rassemblement National (RN), with 32% of the votes, won twice as many as the president’s liberal party Renaissance and called for the dissolution.[47], [48]

Since the 2022 elections, Macron has governed in a coalition that held 43.3% of parliamentary seats, lacking an absolute majority.[49] Opposition parties from the left and right blocked reforms, such as raising the retirement age. Macron used Article 49.3 of the French Constitution, which allows legislation to pass without a parliamentary vote.[50]

Macron stated he called for new elections to counter RN’s growing influence and verify his party’s support among voters.[51] RN achieved the highest vote share in the first round on June 30, 2024 (32%). To create a leftist government, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a three-time presidential left-wing candidate, formed the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP; New Popular Front) by uniting multiple leftist parties ahead of the second round on July 7. Out of 577 seats, NFP won 192 (33.3%), the Liberals 163 (28.3%), and RN 140 (24.3%). [52] [53]

The three alliances, which differ in their core values, ruled out coalition agreements with each other. [54]  Internal divisions within the NFP prevented it from forming a government. [55] Thus, the Liberals formed a minority government, even weaker than before the election, heavily reliant on cooperation with either the leftist or rightist alliances to implement laws or frequently use Article 49.3.[56]

This political instability poses challenges, especially in reducing France’s national debt. According to the International Monetary Fund, this amounts to 115.3% of GDP, making France one of the five countries with the highest national debt in the world alongside Japan, Greece and the USA.[57], [58], [59]

An example of precarious governance was displayed by the vote on the 2025 budget proposal under Conservative Prime Minister Michel Barnier in September. The proposal included €60 billion[60] in spending cuts, eliminating 4,000 jobs[61] in education and healthcare, and tax hikes. The RN and NFP opposed the plan, and Barnier used Article 49.3 to pass it.[62] Consequently, he was ousted by a no-confidence vote.[63]

An example of precarious governance was displayed by the vote on the 2025 budget proposal under Conservative Prime Minister Michel Barnier in September.

François Bayrou, a centrist, succeeded Barnier on December 13, 2024.[64] Bayrou’s government is tasked with drafting a budget by mid-February 2025[65] and governing until the next parliamentary elections in July 2025.[66] Mélenchon has repeatedly called for Macron’s resignation, [67] but Macron has announced his intention to remain president until the end of his term in 2027.[68]

In Germany, the coalition government of the Social Democrats (SPD), Greens, and Liberals (FDP) collapsed prematurely. Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) dismissed Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) after months of failed negotiations on the 2025 federal budget and strategies to stabilise the economy amidst ongoing crises.[69]

Lindner advocated for a shift in economic policy, including pension reductions and tax cuts for top earners.[70] Scholz and Minister for Economic Affairs Robert Habeck (Greens) pushed for better social benefits and green energy policies while continuing support for Ukraine.[71]

Early elections are scheduled for February 23, 2025.[72] Candidates for chancellor include Scholz, Habeck, Lindner, Conservative leader Friedrich Merz (CDU/CSU) and right-wing AFD leader Alice Weidel.[73] Current polls show the Conservatives are leading with 30%, followed by AfD at 18% and the social democrats at 16%.[74]

The AfD is already the strongest party in three German federal states—Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg—but other parties refuse to form coalitions with it due to its far-right positions. [75] A strong AfD opposition could slow legislative progress, mirroring the situation in France.

The United States – Republicans in the Majority of the Government

On November 10, 2024, Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election with 312 electoral votes (49.8%) against Kamala Harris, who received 226 votes (48.3%).[76] Since November 5, the Republicans also gained a slight majority in the U.S. Senate, holding 53 seats to the Democrats’ 47,[77] and maintained their majority in the House of Representatives since 2022 with 215, now with 220 seats.[78], [79] This shift in power makes it significantly easier and faster to pass new legislation compared to the political situations in France and Germany, as well as during Trump’s first term from 2016 to 2020.[80]

Trump will officially assume office as president on January 20, 2025. Among his key goals, he has outlined mass deportations of illegal immigrants (around one million per year), expanding oil and gas production, withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement, imposing tariffs on imported goods from China and the EU, and increased financial contributions of European NATO partners to military expenditures.[81]

The U.S. currently faces a national debt of 124.1% of its GDP, exceeding $36 trillion US dollars last year.[82] To manage the reduction of annual federal expenditures, Trump appointed billionaire Elon Musk as an advisor to the newly created Department of Efficiency. Musk has proposed restructuring bureaucratic institutions, which would involve significant job cuts, reductions in social security benefits, and military spending.[83]

The U.S. currently faces a national debt of 124.1% of its GDP, exceeding $36 trillion US dollars last year.

Trump and Musk are currently under scrutiny for their potential influence on the upcoming 2025 German federal elections, especially in light of their favourable stance towards the far-right AfD.[84] In a guest article for Welt am Sonntag published on December 28, 2024, Musk indicated that, due to his investments in Germany, he believes he has the right to influence the elections and named the AfD on the social platform X as the “only AFD can save Germany.” [85], [86] Musk is also financially supporting the UK’s right-wing Reform UK party with a donation of 95 million euros[87] and called Starmer to resign.[88]

 

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Maria Thiele; Multilingual journalist specialising in international relations between the USA, the EU, Russia, and China. MA in International Journalism & Global Communication. The views expressed in this article are those of the author.

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