Abstract: The Pakistan-Saudi Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement marks a turning point in regional geopolitics, transcending bilateral security cooperation to reshape the balance of power across West Asia and South Asia. The pact strengthens Pakistan’s deterrence by leveraging China’s defence umbrella while allowing Saudi Arabia to diversify beyond U.S. guarantees. It signals the potential emergence of a modular “Arab NATO,” creates strategic ambiguity in nuclear deterrence, and challenges long-standing U.S. hegemony. The agreement heightens security dilemmas for Israel and India while embedding Pakistan as a Gulf security stakeholder. By institutionalising joint defence mechanisms, the pact exemplifies the shift toward multipolar and layered alliances that redefine traditional security frameworks in the 21st century.
Problem statement: How does the Pakistan-Saudi defence pact transform regional security dynamics, challenge U.S. hegemony, and impact the strategic calculus of India and Israel?
So what?: The U.S. and the Regional powers, particularly India and Israel, must urgently reassess their security strategies in light of shifting alliances. Policymakers should prepare for a multipolar defence environment in which modular coalitions replace traditional hierarchies, requiring flexible diplomatic and military responses.
Introduction
The Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) signed on September 17, 2025, between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia marks a pivotal inflection in the security architecture of West and South Asia. Far from being a routine bilateral accord, the pact represents an evolving strategic realignment shaped by China’s expanding influence, the waning centrality of U.S. hegemony, and recalibrations in India’s and Israel’s strategic postures. By framing aggression against either party as an attack on both, the SMDA redefines deterrence dynamics across the Gulf-South Asia corridor and could serve as a nucleus for a broader multilateral framework if other Arab states accede, as hinted by Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif.[1] Critics note the pact’s divergence from NATO in its bilateral nature, lack of institutional integration, and ambiguous obligations; however, dismissing analogies entirely overlooks crucial continuities in the alliance’s evolution. Bilateral defence pacts, such as the early U.S.-UK and U.S.-Canada arrangements, have historically matured into multilateral systems, suggesting a similar trajectory is conceivable here. Moreover, ambiguity in commitment, far from being a flaw, can function as a deterrent asset. At the same time, the combination of Saudi financial power and Pakistani military and nuclear capabilities generate credible strategic complementarity. Though the SMDA lacks NATO’s formal governance and command structures, its potential for gradual institutionalisation under regional pressure underscores its analytical significance as a proto-collective security mechanism and a symbol of shifting multipolarity in the Gulf–South Asian security nexus.
The Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement signed on September 17, 2025, between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia marks a pivotal inflection in the security architecture of West and South Asia.
Leveraging the Chinese Defence Umbrella Without a Formal Alliance
A cornerstone of this pact is Pakistan’s strategic manoeuvres to effectively position itself under the PRC’s defence umbrella without formalising a direct military alliance. Over the decades, the PRC and Pakistan have cultivated a partnership based on arms transfers, nuclear cooperation, and naval/port access to deepen strategic ties in the Indo-Pacific and Arabian seas. This pact uses Saudi Arabia as a bridge, integrating one of the PRC’s paramount Gulf economic partners into a trilateral nexus that amplifies Chinese influence indirectly. By leveraging Sino-Saudi economic and military linkages, Pakistan enhances its deterrence capabilities vis-à-vis India and the West, thereby achieving more secure guarantees with plausible deniability regarding a formal alliance.[2]
This arrangement exemplifies “strategic deflection,” allowing the PRC to extend its military reach into West Asia without overt entanglements. It simultaneously benefits Saudi Arabia by diversifying its security partnerships beyond traditional Western guarantees, obtaining a measure of the PRC’s technological and political backing, while reinforcing Pakistan’s defence posture—a clear instance of multipronged geopolitical layering.[3]
Arab NATO: A Subtle Pathway to Coalition-Building
The long-envisioned concept of an “Arab NATO” has repeatedly faltered amid ideological divergences, leadership rivalries, and incompatible threat perceptions among Arab states. The 2025 Saudi–Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA), however, offers a subtler and more flexible pathway to this aspiration, not through a formal alliance, but through modular bilateral arrangements that may collectively form a security mosaic across the Islamic world.[4] While the Saudi–Pakistan pact lacks the standing command structure, codified multilateralism, and institutional depth that define NATO, it nonetheless serves as a pragmatic pilot for coalition-building. Its bilateral nature allows states wary of rigid treaties to engage in incremental defence cooperation, thereby crafting a “coalition of the willing” adapted to regional realities rather than replicating Western models. Historical continuity strengthens its plausibility: Saudi–Pakistani security cooperation dates back to 1967 and deepened after the 1979 Grand Mosque siege, when Pakistani forces aided Saudi troops. The 1982 Bilateral Security Cooperation Agreement institutionalised this relationship through training, advisory, and troop deployments at times involving over 20,000 Pakistani soldiers—and extensive Saudi procurement of Pakistani defence equipment. Although nuclear deterrence within this framework remains ambiguous, the strategic precedent it establishes is significant. The pact’s future trajectory toward a multilateral framework will depend heavily on evolving regional dynamics and the defence postures of Israel, India, and the United States. Thus, while not an “Arab NATO” in structure, the SMDA marks an embryonic stage in an adaptive, experience-driven approach to Islamic coalition-building amid a fragmenting geopolitical order.
The 2025 Saudi–Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement offers a subtler and more flexible pathway to this aspiration, not through a formal alliance, but through modular bilateral arrangements.
Challenging U.S. Hegemony in West Asia
Perhaps the most audacious dimension of the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) is its implicit challenge to U.S. dominance in West Asia. The pact reflects Saudi Arabia’s strategic hedging against perceived American unreliability, a sentiment that has grown following recent instances where Washington’s commitment to Gulf security appeared uncertain. Riyadh’s pursuit of diversified security partnerships, most notably with Pakistan and, indirectly, the People’s Republic of China, signals an emerging multipolar architecture less dependent on U.S. military primacy.[5] The nuclear dimension, though officially unacknowledged, adds complexity to regional deterrence dynamics: any perceived extension of Pakistan’s deterrent capabilities to Saudi Arabia, even implicitly, could dilute Israel’s qualitative edge and complicate U.S. arms control diplomacy.[6] However, there is no verifiable evidence that Pakistan has extended a nuclear umbrella to Riyadh; both states have avoided confirming any such arrangement. Assertions of “nuclear blackmail” or tactical nuclear transfers remain speculative and are not substantiated by official sources. When questioned about U.S. involvement, Pakistan’s Defence Minister clarified that no third-party consultation was required, underscoring that the SMDA is a defensive, not a hegemonic, pact. The joint statement emphasised[7] a “shared commitment to enhance regional and global peace and security” and invoked the “sacred duty” of safeguarding the holy sites in Saudi Arabia.[8] Thus, while the SMDA challenges Washington’s strategic monopoly, it remains within the bounds of defensive cooperation rather than explicit nuclear deterrence realignment.
Consequences for Israel and India
For Israel, the Saudi–Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) challenges its long-held assumption of uncontested regional nuclear superiority, even though there is no evidence that the pact includes a nuclear dimension. While Tel Aviv’s strategic planners will likely reassess the regional balance of power, the scenario of a direct Pakistani nuclear threat to Israel remains highly implausible, as deterrence credibility rests on verifiable capability and intent.[9] Nonetheless, Israel may intensify intelligence cooperation and contingency planning, given Pakistan’s advanced military capacity and Saudi Arabia’s growing assertiveness.
While Tel Aviv’s strategic planners will likely reassess the regional balance of power, the scenario of a direct Pakistani nuclear threat to Israel remains highly implausible, as deterrence credibility rests on verifiable capability and intent.
For India, the SMDA presents a measured strategic concern rather than an immediate crisis. The pact’s mutual-defence clause introduces new variables in regional crisis management but does not yet alter India’s deterrence posture. New Delhi’s response has been cautious and institutional: the External Affairs Ministry affirmed that it will examine the pact’s implications for national and regional security while safeguarding India’s interests.[10] As a vibrant democracy with professional armed forces under civilian control, India’s national security deliberations are consensus-driven, prioritising strategic autonomy, energy security, and stability in the Gulf region.[11]
Impact on South Asia
The Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) reverberates through South Asia’s fragile security equilibrium. Pakistan’s enhanced security confidence, bolstered by Saudi cooperation, pressures India to recalibrate aspects of its strategic autonomy and defence preparedness.[12] While concerns over potential arms competition and proliferation persist, there is no concrete evidence of an immediate arms race emerging. Instead, regional actors are closely monitoring the evolving balance to assess long-term implications for deterrence and diplomacy. The pact also highlights the growing trend toward issue-based, flexible security partnerships —an approach increasingly evident across Asia’s multipolar landscape. Though such arrangements may fragment existing security frameworks, they also provide smaller states greater room for manoeuvre and cooperative resilience without the constraints of rigid alliances, marking a gradual adaptation to contemporary geopolitical realities.
Expanded Regional and Global Implications
The Pakistan-Saudi defence pact not only recalibrates local alliances but also signals complex diplomatic ripples worldwide. For Pakistan, the agreement infuses much-needed financial and strategic support, leveraging Saudi Arabia’s economic power and political influence to enhance its military capabilities and regional standing. From Islamabad’s perspective, this is not merely a security arrangement but a strategic boost that also enhances Saudi Arabia’s soft power, lending broader political backing in Muslim-majority and global forums, thereby intensifying Islamabad’s diplomatic leverage and deterrent posture, especially against India.[13]
Conversely, Saudi Arabia’s motivation transcends simple military assurance. The pact is a strategic hedge amid perceived U.S. retrenchment from West Asia and fluctuating American policies toward the Gulf, particularly after the Israeli airstrikes on Qatar and the ongoing Gaza conflict.[14] Saudi leadership views the mutual defence agreement as a signal that Riyadh is charting an independent security course and diversifying its partnerships, reducing the risks of over-reliance on Washington. Furthermore, Pakistan’s Defence Minister categorised Afghanistan as a hostile country giving covert and overt support to entities like Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA) to destabilise Pakistan. Security cooperation between the two countries dates back to 1967 and intensified after the 1979 Grand Mosque siege, when Pakistani Special Forces assisted Saudi troops in retaking Masjid al-Haram. By 1982, the relationship was formalised through a Bilateral Security Cooperation Agreement, which facilitated Pakistani training, advisory roles, and troop deployments in Saudi Arabia.[15] At certain points, up to 20,000 Pakistani soldiers were stationed in the Kingdom, while Saudi Arabia also emerged as a significant buyer of Pakistani defence equipment.
Saudi Arabia’s motivation transcends simple military assurance.
In recent years, the partnership has taken on added importance amid regional turmoil. Most recently, at the February 2025 Joint Military Cooperation Committee meeting in Riyadh, the committee committed to expanding training programs and military exchanges. Therefore, this pact institutionalises permanent military coordination through joint committees, intelligence sharing, and training programs, formalising Pakistan’s role as a security stakeholder in the Gulf with an influence extending beyond its traditional South Asian sphere.[16]
The nuclear aspect of the Saudi-Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) remains ambiguous. While commentary, including Ahmed Rashid’s Washington Post analysis (2025), speculates on a possible Pakistani nuclear umbrella for Riyadh, the treaty text itself makes no reference to nuclear cooperation.[17] The absence of explicit provisions means such claims remain unsubstantiated. Nonetheless, even the perception of potential nuclear collaboration introduces sensitivity into regional deterrence equations, compelling Israel, Iran, and India to reassess their security postures. Hence, discussions of a “nuclear umbrella” remain speculative, underscoring the need for transparency to prevent miscalculation and escalation[18].
From India’s standpoint, this pact necessitates a strategic reassessment. Bilateral trade between India and Saudi Arabia reached about $41.88 billion in FY 2024-25, with Indian exports at $11.76 billion and imports at $30.12 billion. Saudi Arabia hosts around 2.5 million Indian expatriates, who send significant remittances, positioning it among the top sources of India’s $135 billion in global diaspora remittances in FY 2025.[19] Therefore, while the trade and energy ties with Saudi Arabia remain robust, as one of India’s top crude oil suppliers, the bilateral security alignment with Pakistan exacerbates India’s strategic challenges.[20] New Delhi faces the dual challenge of managing complex diplomatic relationships with Riyadh and Islamabad, which necessitate enhanced cooperation with key allies such as the United States, Israel, and Russia. The possibility of Saudi intervention or broader regional coalitions in any Indo-Pakistani conflict heightens uncertainty in South Asia’s security dynamics and crisis management.
Saudi Arabia hosts around 2.5 million Indian expatriates, who send significant remittances, positioning it among the top sources of India’s $135 billion in global diaspora remittances in FY 2025.
Conclusion
The Pakistan–Saudi defence pact represents an incipient framework rather than a fully formed alliance. While it signals growing strategic convergence and may serve as a nucleus for a future Arab or Islamic collective defence structure, it remains far from an “Arab NATO” in substance or scale. Its significance lies in initiating a gradual realignment that subtly extends China’s regional influence, reduces U.S. exclusivity, and compels recalibration by Israel and India. Though embryonic, this evolving partnership could, over time, shape the emerging multipolar security architecture of West and South Asia.
[1] Al Jazeera, “‘Watershed’: How Saudi–Pakistan Defence Pact Reshapes Region’s Geopolitics,” September 18, 2025, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/9/18/watershed-how-saudi-pakistan-defence-pact-reshapes-regions-geopolitics.
[2] Middle East Institute, “Beyond Diplomacy: Charting China’s Multifaceted Partnership with Pakistan,” December 8, 2023, https://www.mei.edu/publications/beyond-diplomacy-charting-chinas-multifaceted-partnership-pakistan.
[3] Chatham House, “Saudi Arabia and Pakistan’s Mutual Defence Pact Sets Precedent—Extended Deterrence,” September 23, 2025, https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/09/saudi-arabia-and-pakistans-mutual-defence-pact-sets-precedent-extended-deterrence.
[4] “Arab NATO: A Comprehensive Analysis,” PwOnlyIAS, September 21, 2025, https://pwonlyias.com/current-affairs/arab-nato-a-comprehensive-analysis/.
[5] Global Policy Journal, “China’s Challenge to United States Dominance,” October 8, 2023, https://www.globalpolicyjournal.com/blog/09/10/2023/chinas-challenge-united-states-dominance.
[6] “Saudi–Pakistan Defense Pact Brings New Nuclear Player to Region,” Breaking Defense, September 21, 2025, https://breakingdefense.com/2025/09/saudi-pakistan-defense-pact-brings-new-nuclear-player-to-region/.
[7] “Pakistan Says Saudi Defense Pact to Promote Peace in South Asia, Middle East,” Arab News, September 20, 2025, https://www.arabnews.com/node/2616128/pakistan.
[8] “Entry of Other Arab Countries in Pakistan–Saudi Arabia Defence Pact Not Ruled Out: Khawaja Asif,” Deccan Herald, September 18, 2025, https://www.deccanherald.com/world/entry-of-other-arab-countries-in-pakistan-saudi-arabia-defence-pact-not-ruled-out-khawaja-asif-3735774.
[9] “From Israel to India: How Saudi–Pakistan Defence Pact Is Redrawing Power Lines,” Middle East Eye, September 20, 2025, https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/how-saudi-pakistan-defence-pact-redrawing-power-lines.
[10] “Saudi–Pak Defence Pact Will Change Life for India: Ian Bremmer,” India Today, September 18, 2025, https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/ian-bremmer-examines-saudi-arabia-pakistan-defence-pact-impact-on-india-2790321-2025-09-19.
[11] “Navigating India’s Interests amid Saudi–Pakistan Alignment,” Drishti IAS, September 21, 2025, https://www.drishtiias.com/daily-updates/daily-news-editorials/navigating-india-s-interests-amid-saudi-pakistan-alignment.
[12] “Pakistan and Saudi Arabia Signed Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement,” VisionIAS, September 18, 2025, https://visionias.in/current-affairs/news-today/2025-09-19/international-relations/pakistan-and-saudi-arabia-signed-strategic-mutual-defence-agreement.
[13] “Why Pakistan–Saudi Arabia Defence Pact Is Unsettling India,” BBC News, September 22, 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c147gkxyyrmo.
[14] “New Saudi–Pakistan Pact Signals Evolving Alliances amid US–China Tension, Qatar Attack,” South China Morning Post, September 21, 2025, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3326200/new-saudi-pakistan-pact-signals-evolving-alliances-amid-us-china-tension-qatar-attack.
[15] “Entry of Other Arab Countries in Pakistan–Saudi Arabia Defence Pact Not Ruled Out: Khawaja Asif,” Deccan Herald, September 18, 2025, https://www.deccanherald.com/world/entry-of-other-arab-countries-in-pakistan-saudi-arabia-defence-pact-not-ruled-out-khawaja-asif-3735774.
[16] Ahmed Rashid, “Has Pakistan Extended Its Nuclear Umbrella to Riyadh? No One Will Say,” Washington Post, September 26, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/09/26/pakistan-saudi-arabia-security-nuclear-weapons/.
[17] “Will Saudi Arabia’s New Defense Agreement with Pakistan Have Proliferation Consequences?” Washington Institute, September 18, 2025, https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/will-saudi-arabias-new-defense-agreement-pakistan-have-proliferation-consequence.
[18] Rabia Akhtar, “Beyond the Hype: Pakistan–Saudi Defense Pact Is Not a Saudi Nuclear Umbrella,” Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, September 18, 2025, https://www.belfercenter.org/research-analysis/beyond-hype-pakistan-saudi-defense-pact-not-saudi-nuclear-umbrella.
[19] Embassy of India, Riyadh, “India–Saudi Bilateral Relations,” Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, April 21, 2025, https://www.eoiriyadh.gov.in/page/india-saudi-bilateral-relations/.
[20] “Saudi Defense Pact with Pakistan Unlikely to Disrupt Oil Flows to India, Source Says,” CNBC, September 22, 2025, https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/22/saudi-defense-pact-with-pakistan-unlikely-to-disrupt-oil-flows-to-india-source-says.html.
