Abstract: The revitalisation of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline is vital for regional connectivity and economic growth in South and Central Asia. With Afghanistan’s part under construction, the pipeline will deliver 33 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually, creating jobs and boosting Afghanistan’s economy. It also promotes regional cooperation through enhanced energy infrastructure. However, its success depends on overcoming security concerns in Afghanistan and geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan. Despite these challenges, the TAPI pipeline offers a solution to energy dependence, strengthens economic ties, holds strategic importance for Russia and China, and requires sustained cooperation for long-term success.

Problem statement: How can cooperation among India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan be fostered to achieve long-term energy security and regional integration?

So what?: The implementation and operation of the TAPI pipeline would not only meet the energy needs of South Asia but also strengthen ties with the Central Asian republics. This raises the question of whether India and Pakistan, as nuclear rival states, will set aside their differences and take the project seriously for the betterment of regional connectivity and prosperity.

A Regional Energy Corridor and Afghanistan’s Economic Opportunity

The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI), also known as the Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline, is one of the region’s largest natural gas export projects. Afghanistan plays a crucial role in the project, and its involvement is expected to transform the country into an economic hub. The idea of transporting natural gas from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan and Pakistan began in the 1990s. However, the project gained momentum in 2003 with the support of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Later, in 2008, India joined the initiative, expanding the scope of the pipeline, which is now regarded as a significant economic opportunity for Afghanistan.[1] Progress on the TAPI pipeline has faced multiple setbacks in the past, primarily due to ongoing security concerns in the conflict-ridden areas of Afghanistan. These security challenges have significantly delayed the implementation of the project, hindering its timely completion.[2] However, the TAPI pipeline positions the interim Afghan government, which remains unrecognised internationally, as a key player in fostering regional cooperation between Central Asia and South Asia, particularly as the latter faces significant energy shortages. Despite ongoing economic and financial sanctions imposed by the West, Afghanistan is actively pursuing large-scale projects to revitalise its energy, mining, and infrastructure sectors to strengthen its economy.

The TAPI pipeline positions the interim Afghan government, which remains unrecognised internationally, as a key player in fostering regional cooperation between Central Asia and South Asia.

Afghanistan’s Role in the TAPI Project and Its Repercussions

The revival of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline marks a significant milestone for South and Central Asia, enhancing regional connectivity and economic growth. In September 2024, officials from Turkmenistan and the Taliban relaunched the TAPI project for the second time that year despite the absence of representatives from India and Pakistan. According to Zabihullah Mujahid, a spokesperson for the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA), practical work has begun on the Afghan segment of the 1,821-kilometer pipeline.[3] The project is expected to deliver 33 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually,[4] generating up to $1 billion in revenue for Afghanistan, alongside creating thousands of jobs.[5]

Subsequently, the TAPI pipeline is viewed as a beacon of hope for Afghanistan’s economic revival and a driver of regional cooperation, complementing other critical infrastructure initiatives such as CASA-1000. Since the Taliban’s takeover, the commencement of the project has been considered one of their significant achievements on Afghan soil.

The TAPI pipeline, originally proposed in 1997 during the Islamic Emirate’s previous rule, encountered significant delays following the U.S. overthrow of their government in 2001. After the Taliban’s return to power three years ago, they have prioritised the project, marking an important step toward its realisation. The Afghan portion of the pipeline, stretching 816 kilometres,[6] will pass through the provinces of Herat, Farah, Nimroz, Helmand, and Kandahar. The pipeline will originate from Turkmenistan’s Galkynysh gas field and is designed to transport 33 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually to Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India. Under the agreement with Turkmenistan, Afghanistan is set to purchase three billion cubic meters of gas over the next 30 years. The project will also include the installation of twelve pressure pumps, five of which will be located in Afghanistan, underscoring the pipeline’s importance for Afghanistan’s energy needs and its role in fostering regional cooperation.

The Afghanistan Industrialists’ Association sees the completion of the TAPI project as a crucial driver of economic growth and development for the country. Abdul Jabbar Safi, the association’s leader, stressed the project’s significance, noting that it will create thousands of job opportunities.[7] He also pointed out that the southwest region of Afghanistan will become a key economic hub. The implementation of the TAPI pipeline will pave the way for the development of essential infrastructure, including gas networks, electricity grids, railways, and roads, all of which will further enhance the nation’s economic prospects.

The Afghanistan Industrialists’ Association sees the completion of the TAPI project as a crucial driver of economic growth and development for the country.

Geopolitical Challenges in Central and South Asia

The relationship between India and Pakistan, two major nuclear-armed rivals in South Asia, has been marked by tension and instability since their independence. This volatile geopolitical environment presents risks to the TAPI pipeline, which could be deliberately disrupted due to political conflicts. The project, along with broader regional cooperation, is hampered by the ongoing military rivalry between the two countries. Over the years, they have engaged in numerous cross-border skirmishes, including the 2019 airstrikes, with each side frequently blaming the other for internal instability. Despite recent efforts to ease tensions, India remains cautious about whether Pakistan could use the TAPI pipeline to influence its energy security.[8] At the same time, Pakistan’s strained relationship with Afghanistan, partly due to the safe haven for Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan and other militant groups, makes Islamabad wary of potential disruptions to the gas supply.[9]

While these energy transfer projects promise significant economic benefits for all participating countries, they face considerable challenges. Regional insecurity, political and economic disputes, and a history of mistrust and limited cooperation among South Asian nations hinder progress. Ongoing regional tensions, instability, border conflicts, and diplomatic deadlocks can disrupt construction and implementation efforts. Additionally, the unstable geopolitics of South and Central Asia, marked by major powers competing to exert influence, may further obstruct these projects due to their economic and strategic interests.[10]

Subsequently, Central Asia and South Asia are home to a complex network of energy pipelines, many of which have been hindered by geopolitical tensions and realpolitik. Bilateral disputes and the interference of external forces have disrupted regional geo-economics, leaving resource-rich countries facing significant challenges. Despite these obstacles, the energy-deficient region is determined to overcome these constraints, with several trans-regional megaprojects in the works. Key projects include CASA-1000, TAPI, and the Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline (formerly the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline), as well as various rail and road network initiatives.[11] Additionally, bilateral ventures such as the $2.5 billion Pakistan Steam Gas Pipeline project involving Russia and Pakistan are also underway, aimed at addressing the region’s energy needs.

Pakistan’s Strategic Interests in the TAPI Pipeline

Pakistan is among the countries struggling to meet its growing energy demands. Limited resources have slowed progress in resolving the energy crisis, which has been exacerbated by rapid population growth and increasing domestic and commercial consumption. The resulting energy shortfalls have hindered social and economic development. However, Pakistan is not alone; neighbouring countries like Afghanistan and India are also experiencing prolonged energy crises. This shared challenge has compelled even hostile nations to cooperate on energy projects to alleviate domestic shortages.

Pakistan is among the countries struggling to meet its growing energy demands. Limited resources have slowed progress in resolving the energy crisis.

In July 2024, Pakistan and Turkmenistan agreed to expedite the progress of the TAPI gas pipeline project, reaffirming their commitment to continued collaboration.[12] The agreement was made during a meeting between Pakistan’s Federal Minister for Petroleum, Dr Musadik Malik, and Turkmenistan’s Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Rashid Meredov, who was on a two-day visit to Pakistan. As the TAPI project comes to fruition, it presents a significant opportunity for Pakistan. With the country facing mounting pressure to meet its domestic and industrial energy demands through costly LNG imports, Pakistan can reduce its reliance on expensive imports by pursuing the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Unfortunately, once a promising solution, the trilateral $7.5 billion IPI pipeline project faltered when India withdrew.[13] Pakistan has yet to complete the 80 km pipeline connecting Gwadar to the Iranian border.[14] Despite Tehran’s investment of over $2 billion and its efforts to bring the pipeline to Pakistan’s doorstep, the project has largely stagnated, buried in neglect.

Pakistan’s inability to move forward with the Iran gas pipeline has strained relations with Tehran, leading to the potential imposition of a penalty exceeding $18 billion for breaching the agreement. This situation has also created diplomatic tensions with Washington, as Islamabad failed to secure a penalty waiver.[15] As a result, Pakistan’s pressing energy needs remain unmet, and the prospects of fostering geo-economic ties with neighbouring countries, particularly Iran and India, have been undermined. To address this dilemma, Pakistan must adopt a more tactful diplomatic approach and take a principled, sovereign stance in securing its energy future.

India’s Energy Security and Economic Growth

In 2018, India raised concerns that the cost of natural gas supplied through the pipeline would be nearly double that of domestically produced gas, leading New Delhi to seek a renegotiation of the TAPI Gas Sales and Purchase Agreement.[16]

Since then, the project has faced further setbacks due to tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad. Although bilateral relations are relatively stable, they have stagnated with minimal engagement and significant detachment. India is particularly concerned that relying on the pipeline for energy could give Pakistan undue leverage during potential conflicts, as Islamabad could halt the gas supply to pressure New Delhi.[17] Despite these strategic concerns, India should not let ongoing tensions with Pakistan deter it from taking a leadership role in advancing the TAPI pipeline.

India is particularly concerned that relying on the pipeline for energy could give Pakistan undue leverage during potential conflicts, as Islamabad could halt the gas supply to pressure New Delhi.

The revival of the TAPI pipeline also holds significant potential for India’s energy security and economic growth. As a key part of India’s efforts to diversify its energy sources, the TAPI pipeline could facilitate the import of natural gas from Turkmenistan, enhancing India’s energy supply while reducing reliance on traditional sources. The project also aligns with India’s strategic interest in strengthening ties with Central Asia and improving regional connectivity.[18] However, its successful implementation depends on overcoming geopolitical challenges, including security concerns in Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as diplomatic coordination with stakeholders involved in the project.

Russia’s Growing Interest in the TAPI Pipeline

Russian involvement in the TAPI pipeline would significantly advance Moscow’s vision for the Greater Eurasian Partnership (GEP).[19] This initiative forms a core element of Russia’s regional strategy, aiming to establish a network of free trade zones, economic alliances, and interconnected integration projects across Eurasia.

Russian Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov, in an interview with PTV World, indicated Russia’s openness to joining the TAPI project. Although Russia is not currently involved, Shulginov noted the need to resolve security concerns, particularly regarding the pipeline’s route through Afghanistan. However, he expressed confidence that such security challenges could be managed. Shulginov also highlighted progress on the Pakistan Stream project, stating that while corporate documents are ready for signing, challenges remain in identifying reliable gas sources.[20] Given Russia’s role as a leading gas supplier to Asia and its geopolitical influence in Central and South Asia, participation in TAPI is crucial. Russia cannot afford to remain on the sidelines of significant energy and geopolitical developments in these regions.

Furthermore, Russia’s growing interest in the TAPI pipeline is driven by both strategic and economic factors. Amid Western sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine, Moscow is seeking to strengthen its ties with Ashgabat and shift its energy exports from Europe to South Asia, which could make its participation in TAPI crucial. This could boost Russia’s influence in the region and integrate energy infrastructure across Central and South Asia. In 2023, Russia’s state-owned Gazprom revealed plans to reverse the gas flow in Soviet-era pipelines, such as the Central Asia–Centre gas system, to carry Russian gas through Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, ultimately linking to TAPI and delivering gas to the Indian Ocean.[21] However, security concerns, particularly from militant groups in Afghanistan, pose significant challenges to the pipeline’s implementation.

The Future of TAPI and Regional Cooperation

If completed, the TAPI pipeline could address energy shortages in India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan while fostering regional cooperation, economic growth, and stability. However, achieving this goal demands overcoming major challenges, including securing investments, ensuring the security of the pipeline route, and promoting collaboration among politically tense nations. The pipeline’s advancement remains a priority for the involved countries, and its success could pave the way for a new era of energy diplomacy and regional economic integration.

The TAPI pipeline could address energy shortages in India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan while fostering regional cooperation, economic growth, and stability.

In brief, the TAPI pipeline represents a significant step forward for regional energy cooperation. However, its success depends heavily on ensuring stability and security in Afghanistan. The project’s long-term feasibility will require consistent collaboration among Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India, alongside a shared commitment to addressing potential challenges. By fostering a secure environment and strengthening regional partnerships, the TAPI pipeline can serve as a catalyst for economic growth, energy security, and regional connectivity, benefiting all involved.

 

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Saima Afzal is a research scholar and analyst with an M. Phil in peace and conflict studies from the National Defence University in Islamabad, Pakistan. Ms. Afzal regularly contributes her opinion at various forums on contemporary issues of national and international security. The views contained in this article are the author’s alone.

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[1] “TAPI Project, Islamic Emirates of Afghanistan,” Ministry of Mines and Petroleum, https://momp.gov.af/tapi-project.

[2] “Afghanistan to begin work on TAPI gas pipeline,” September 11, 2024, https://www.dawn.com/news/1858339.

[3] Ariana News, September 2024, “Construction of Afghanistan section of TAPI gas pipeline launched,” https://www.ariananews.af/construction-of-afghanistan-section-of-tapi-gas-pipeline-launched/.

[4] Asian Development Bank, 2018, “Regional: Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Natural Gas Pipeline Project, Phase 3,” Sovereign Project 44463-013, https://www.adb.org/projects/44463-013/main.

[5] The Express Tribune, “Afghanistan announces start of $10b TAPI gas pipeline project,” https://tribune.com.pk/story/2495365/afghanistan-announces-start-of-10b-tapi-gas-pipeline-project.

[6] Isabel Stagg, “Afghanistan begins work on TAPI pipeline,” World Pipeline, https://www.worldpipelines.com/project-news/13092024/afghanistan-begins-work-on-tapi-pipeline/.

[7] Bibi Amina Hakimi, “ Mujahid: TAPI Project ‘Progressing’ Practically in Country,” Tolo News, https://tolonews.com/business-191953.

[8] Mirza Sadaqat Huda, “The Governance of the TAPI Pipeline Political, Social, and Environmental Challenges,” The National Bureau of Asian Research https://www.nbr.org/publication/the-governance-of-the-tapi-pipeline-political-social-and-environmental-challenges/.

[9] Syed Sibtain Hussain Shah, 2024, “Resurrection of Tehrik‐e‐Taliban Pakistan Amidst Afghan Regime’s Indifference: Threats to Intersectional Security Strands in the Region,” Social Inclusion Journal, https://www.cogitatiopress.com/socialinclusion/article/view/8598.

[10] Ali Haider Saleem, 2018, “Central and South Asian Energy Projects: Prospects and Challenges for Pakistan,” https://issi.org.pk/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/4-SS_Ali_Haider_Saleem_No-3_2018.pdf.

[11] Arhama Siddiqa, “Fueling Progress: The Iran-Pakistan (IP) Gas Pipeline,” https://issi.org.pk/issue-brief-on-fueling-progress-the-iran-pakistan-ip-gas-pipeline/.

[12] The Nation, “Pakistan, Turkmenistan agree to expedite TAPI pipeline project,” https://www.nation.com.pk/25-Jul-2024/pakistan-turkmenistan-agree-to-expedite-tapi-pipeline-project.

[13] Ishtiaq Ali Mehkri, “TAPI progression and prospect of Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline,” Express Tribune, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2498250/tapi-progression-and-prospect-of-pakistan-iran-gas-pipeline.

[14] The Frontier Post, April 2024, “Islamabad starts work to complete 80-km section of Pak-Iran gas pipeline,” https://thefrontierpost.com/islamabad-starts-work-to-complete-80-km-section-of-pak-iran-gas-pipeline/.

[15] Jamal Shahid, “$18bn penalty feared if Pakistan doesn’t complete Iran gas project,” The Dawn, https://www.dawn.com/news/1754035.

[16] India seeks revision in price of gas via TAPI line, The Hindus, 2018, https://www.thehindu.com/business/india-seeks-revision-in-price-of-gas-via-tapi-line/article24754144.ece.

[17] Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury, “New Delhi lukewarm over extension of TAPI to India given current state of ties with Pakistan,” The Economic Times https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/new-delhi-lukewarm-over-extension-of-tapi-to-india-given-current-state-of-ties-with-pakistan/articleshow/113407692.cms?from=mdr.

[18] Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Pipeline, https://www.drishtiias.com/daily-updates/daily-news-analysis/turkmenistan-afghanistan-pakistan-india-pipeline.

[19] Andrew Korybko, “Russia’s grand geo-economic plan a step closer in Afghanistan,” https://asiatimes.com/2024/11/russias-grand-geo-economic-plan-a-step-closer-in-afghanistan/.

[20] International Information Group, January 20, 2023, Russia might be interested in participating in TAPI gas pipeline – Energy Minister, https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/87088/.

[21] Syed Fazl-e-Haider, “Revival of TAPI Pipeline Project Brings Serious Geopolitical Implications for Russia,” https://jamestown.org/program/revival-of-tapi-pipeline-project-brings-serious-geopolitical-implications-for-russia/.